The Chicago Drama Queens

by: pageian

Yep, they've done it again.  The Chicago Cubs are mired in a drama filled quagmire the likes of which few other teams could conjure up.  The Yankees?  Maybe.  The Red Sox?  Perhaps in the depths of their neurosis, maybe.  The Dodgers?  Not a chance.  Leave it to the Cubs to pull off something so strange, so unnecessary, so counter intuitive, so Cub like that there is no mistaking who did it.  They've taken the 5th highest paid pitcher in baseball, their best starter and the workhorse of their rotation and put him in the bullpen.  They now have the highest paid reliever of all time.  Mariano Rivera's got nothing on Carlos Zambrano, apparently.

So why all the fuss?  Why the hand wringing?  Why are Cub fans renouncing their fandom?  Oh so many reasons, where to begin?  For one thing, and perhaps the most important, something that any front office baseball man should intuitively know without having to be told, you DO NOT waste your best starter in the bullpen where he's likely to throw 70 innings on the year instead of having him start and throw 200 innings.  Better pitcher, more innings.  You simply don't sacrifice 130+ innings on a lesser pitcher in order to get 70 good innings from a better pitcher, unless you want to lose games.  In explaining the reasoning for the move though Papa Lou didn't mention to lost innings.  So what did he mention?

It's no secret that the Cubs bullpen has been their Achilles heal so far this season (that and the erratic, anemic offense).  Their closer Carlos Marmol has been pretty good, which is nice if you can get a lead to him in the ninth inning.  That hasn't happened often though with the like of John Grabow, Jeff Gray, Justin Berg, James Russell, Jeff Samardzija and Esmailin Caridad alternately taking turns coughing up leads.  No one has stepped up to pitch the eight inning competently, no one has done well enough to be the setup man for Marmol.  Enter Zambrano.  According to Lou, Zambrano is perfect for the role.  With Ted Lilly coming of the disabled list Saturday someone had to be moved out of the rotation and into the pen.  Instead of choosing Tom Gorzelanny and adding another left hander to the pen or choosing Carlos Silva and allowing him to continue resurrecting his career as a reliever Lou choose to take the number one starter and effectively limit his role with the team.

Any lifelong Cub fan will know that one of the main problems they've had with their bullpen has usually been control.  Every year it's the same thing, a reliever comes in and immediately starts walking hitters.  Unfortunately Carlos Zambrano walks a lot of hitters himself.  The better choice would have been Carlos Silva.  He spent years in the Twins organization learning the finer points of control and not walking hitters.  Wouldn't that have been nice coming out of the pen, someone you could count on to not give up a free pass when it counted?  Silva also has experience coming out of the pen, he spent his first two years in the bigs relieving for the Phillies.  Zambrano also pitched in relief when he came up but not nearly as much.  He's always been a starter except for that brief time when he broke into the majors. 

There are other considerations as well.  Zambrano is a fiery personality, somewhat immature, combustible.  One little bloop hit or misplayed ball can cause a meltdown with him.  That may or may not be a big deal for a starter because a meltdown in the third inning can be recovered from while a meltdown in the eight limits your opportunities to recover.  Zambrano's personality is also going to mean that this move to the pen is going to be remembered all season, it's not going to be let go, it's going to be second guessed every time it fails.  That's drama that is unneeded, unwanted and self inflicted.  It pretty much guarantees that every time things go sour this year there will be complaining by the media, fans, blogosphere and everyone else ad nauseam.  It's going to be one big distraction for a team that absolutely doesn't need distractions.

So how is all this going to play out?  Frankly I see two ways this comes to an end.  It will either be short lived and Zambrano will be back in the rotation inside of a month or it will eventually bring about the end of Zambrano's career as a Cub.  I'm guessing that Jim Hendry acquires a power arm for the bullpen, either by trade, signing or through the minor league system, or another starter gets injured or struggles enough that Zambrano replaces them in the rotation.  If that doesn't happen and this experiment drags on throughout the summer I see Zambrano getting more and more ancy to return to starting and intentionally makes himself the center of attention, makes himself a distraction and butts heads with Piniella.  That's not going to endear himself with the fans, the front office or the new owners and at some point the decision is going to be made to tell him to go home, a la Milton Bradley, and ends up with him being dealt in the offseason at pennies on the dollar. 

I hope I'm wrong.  Since it's happening, I hope Zambrano wasn't just saying the right things, I hope he's really bought into going to the pen for the time being.  I hope he does well and I hope he and Lou communicate with each other and not through the media.  I hope the experiment works in the near term and that Zambrano ends up back in the rotation in the long run, before his patience runs out.  I think it was a bad decision for so many reasons but fortunately it can be undone really easily.  Hopefully Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry come to their senses and end it before it all blows up in their faces.  And let's face it, it's the Cubs, it is going to blow up in their faces.  It's only a matter of time.

Cub fans, meet Jacque Jones...... umm, I mean Marlon Byrd.

You have to hand it to Jim Hendry, he knows what he likes.  Former Texas Rangers.  Mediocre outfielders coming off of career years.  Guys with the initials MB.  Neifi Perez.

The Cubs have signed Marlon Byrd to be their center fielder for the next three years.  The deal is worth $15 million dollars and in typical Jim Hendry fashion it's back loaded so that the bulk of the money will be paid out in the later years.  Specifically, $3 million in 2010, $5.5 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012.  This of course has the affect of helping squeeze Byrd into an already tight payroll and still gives Hendry the flexibility to add a pitcher or pitchers with his remaining budget.  Apparently he doesn't care about next year or the year after but that's another story.  Hey maybe Hendry will be able to talk Derek Lee into taking a $2.5 million dollar pay cut after his $13 million dollar a year contract runs out after the 2010 season so payroll won't have to go up!  /end sarcasm

Okay, let's get serious for a minute.  This isn't a terrible signing from a baseball standpoint.  Marlon Byrd is an average player if you look at his road stats.  In a normal year he's likely to put up an OPS of about .750 which is about league average.  His defense in center is also average, it fluctuates year to year like most players but in general his UZR is acceptable.  When he plays the corners he's defense is much better, going from average to very good.  The problem is that his bat doesn't play in a corner outfield spot where you'd normally expect a slugger or at least an above average hitter.  In center, if Byrd can just replicate his last three year road splits his bat will be fine though and since his defense is average he's not going to be hurting the Cubs.

What is going to hurt the Cubs is the contract, more specifically the length of the contract.  Three years for a 32 year old player in today's game (post-PED's) is stretching it.  Players don't start their decline at a set time but generally it comes on in their early to mid thirties.  By the time Byrd reaches the end of his contract he will have turned 35 and will quite likely have been regressing for at least a year.  By then he's probably going to be a fourth outfielder, and since he'll then be making $6.5 million dollars he'll be an extremely expensive fourth outfielder at that.  Those are very hard to trade without eating some of the contract.  Unless Jim Hendry knows something we don't about the future of the teams payroll then I'd imagine if he's having trouble fitting in a $3 million dollar contract into the 2010 payroll he's going to have trouble fitting in a similar contract in the 2012 payroll, and having overpaid, below average backups on the roster isn't going to make that easier.

So, is Jim Hendry really doing what's best for the team or is he just trying to save his job?  The new owners, the Ricketts, can't be to pleased about the Milton Bradley fiasco that they inherited and that dominated the headlines in the first few months of their ownership.  They also can't be very pleased about the team struggling against payroll limitations even though they were only an 83 win team the previous year and regressed in many important statistical categories.  Not all of that is Hendry's fault, bad years from Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, Milton Bradley, Kevin Gregg as well as injuries to Carlos Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez helped limit the teams effectiveness.  It should be noted that Hendry traded for Gregg when there really wasn't anything to suggest that he was worth spending $4 million dollars on (he fell for the saves total, the most overrated stat in the game) and he handed out $30 million dollars to the volatile Bradley when it would have reasonably been predicted that the situation would end badly.  Oh, and the Cubs are still on the hook for five more years of that ridiculous contract he handed out to Soriano after the 2006 season.

Maybe Hendry is trying to save his job with a good 2010 season or maybe he just doesn't have a good idea of how to put together a roster anymore.  Before 2006 the Cubs always operated below what their revenue would seem to have dictated.  Hendry was forced to acquire players through trades and shrewd free agent pickups.  After a poor season in 2006 and with the team likely headed for sale the Tribune decided to open the checkbook and allowed Hendry to go on a spending spree like MLB has rarely seen outside of the Bronx.  He spent more than $300 million dollars that winter and he hasn't been the same since.  He seems to try to solve all the teams problems in the most expensive fashion now, through the free agent market.  There's not a more expensive way to acquire talent in baseball than that.  Hendry has only made one trade of real consequence since 2006, his trade for Rich Harden midway through the 2008 season (who he just let walk as a free agent himself without offering arbitration because of financial concerns). 

Teams can't live that way, can't acquire all their talent through free agency.  They have to be able to make trades to fill holes, deal from strengths, sign amateur talent and look for minor leaguers who are undervalued by their current organizations.  Essentially they have to be able to beg, borrow and steal every talent they can find for the least amount of resources.  Jim Hendry hasn't done that in awhile and the Cubs are paying the price for it, regressing in the standings and bumping up against financial limits.  Marlon Byrd is just the latest example, and the latest to take advantage of Hendry's free agent addiction.

Cubs dump Bradley, get Silva dumped on them.

The Cubs finally traded Milton Bradley to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Carlos Silva and $9 million dollars.  Given that Bradley was owed $21 million over the next two years and Silva is owed $24 during that time the net dollars coming to the Cubs is $6 million and apparently a larger portion of that money is coming in the 2010 season than 2011.  That gives the Cubs a little more financial flexibility to fill their remaining holes but not enough to go out and make a play for big name hitters like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.  Jim Hendry freed up a few million bucks by dealing Aaron Heilman and Aaron Miles earlier this off season, add that to the net $6 million we're getting from Bradley along with the small amount that Hendry had to begin with ($2-4 million after signing Grabow?)  It would seem that the Cubs have a total of around $10 million dollars to spend, give or take a million (or two).

Word is that the Cubs want to get a center fielder, a relief pitcher and perhaps a starting pitcher if one becomes available at their price.  How are they going to be able to accomplish all this with only $10 million to spend?  First of all Hendry isn't going to be able to basically meet the players asking price like he's done in the past to get a player signed.  If he decides to go after Marlon Byrd it's going to need to be a true negotiation rather than just giving Byrd whatever he wants.

There would seem to be a few descent relievers left on the market but I'm not really enamored with any of them and I'd probably just rather see the team save that money and use one of the many young arms they have available to them.  Matt Capps would have been nice but since he's going to be a National I don't think the Cubs should prepare to spend that kind of money on any other reliever available.  Kiko Calero might be a nice bullpen arm and he won't be as expensive as Capps so he's an option if Hendry wants to spend on a free agent reliever.  Jose Valverde is available as well but the problem is that he wants way to much money for the Cubs to be able to squeeze him in.  He's asking for something like $8-10 million a year, that would devastate the Cubs remaining budget and preclude signing a new starter and center fielder.  Unless Valverde decides to take a one year deal at a much less salary with the thought of hitting the market again next year when there aren't so many closers available I don't see him becoming a Cub.  Besides, with Carlos Marmol already pegged as the Cubs closer would Valverde really want to be a setup man in what would essentially be another contract year?  Doesn't seem likely.

The Cub pursuit of another starting pitcher is a little perplexing to me.  Unless they go the trade route then I don't see much available that would drastically make the rotation better and not impact payroll a great deal.  Jon Garland, Joel Piniero..... no thanks.  Too much money, not enough results.  The Cubs already have multiple candidates to fill in at the back end of the rotation, even until Ted Lilly comes back from surgery that should sideline him until perhaps May or even into early June.  Even with Lilly's injury it wouldn't be out of the question for them to get 120 starts out of their front four of Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Wells.  Jeff Samardzjia, Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny  are all capable fill-ins, at least Marshall and Gorzelanny and they'll also compete for the fifth spot.  Samardzjia may not be ready to hold a spot in a major league rotation yet but he's certainly a talented pitcher who is due, at some point, to make an impact in the majors.  Gorzelanny has already made an impact a few years back with the Pirates and might be a great find at the back end of the rotation for a team like the Cubs where he won't be asked to lead the staff.  Sean Marshall can handle pitching in the pen and the rotation though he's perhaps a bit overexposed as a starter.  Spot starting is okay though he should compete well with the others for Lilly's spot and the fifth spot.  I know you can never have too much pitching but in this case other priorities should seem to outweigh the need for another starter.  Besides, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that once upon a time Carlos Silva as at least a league average pitcher in the AL.  He's always been hittable but he's got great control, sounds to me like a bullpen arm, mop up guy, someone to pitch in blowouts until he proves that he's capable of taking on a more highly leveraged role in the pen or even in the roation.  He's certainly back of the rotation material but the Cubs hope to win so I doubt they'll just give him a spot.  At this point he's going to have to earn everything he gets.  The best case scenario I see for him is to pitch well in insignificant innings out of the bullpen and have him work his way up if his health and stuff permits.  He's also a candidate to be released so his career as a Cub could be one of partial redemption or simply quick ending.

If the choice for center field comes down to Marlon Byrd, Scott Podsednick or Rick Ankiel then I think the Cubs should look for the cheapest, shortest contract to sign.  That's probably going to be Podsednick, the least desirable of the bunch.  Ankiels has had trouble staying healthy but he does have some upside with the bat if you ignored his current downward trend line and he also plays descent defense, has an outstanding arm and bats left-handed.  If he's willing to sign a one year contracts with incentives built in to keep the base salary down and protect the team against his health then that's the route I'd go.  As for Byrd, he's going to be the most expensive but he's also been the most productive of the three the past few years.  The main issue with him is that he's played half of his ballgames in a hitters paradise in Arlington with the Rangers during that time.  His home and road splits indicate that he's nothing more than average on the road.  I hate to say it but Jim Hendry seems to not always pay attention to that kind of thing so it's not out of the realm of possibility of him paying Byrd like an .850 OPS guy instead of the .750 OPS guy that he really is.

So, if these were my decisions I'd try to bring back Reed Johnson at something between $2-3 million on a one year contract and try bringing in Ankiel for a similar price.  That could be a very productive platoon in center, good defensively and offensively while not breaking the bank.  It's possible that both could be brought in for the same price of Byrd alone.  That would leave about $4-6 million to spend.  Kiko Calero is probably going to sign somewhere for a couple million bucks on a one or two year deal.  I'd be happy to see the Cubs give him that, 2-years, $4 million total.  The Cubs would then have about $2-4 million left and instead of wasting it on a back of the rotation starter I think they should save it for the mid season trade deadline when their needs for the second half of the season are going to be more clearly defined and they'll have a better idea of what to spend it on.  I hope Jim Hendry is thinking like me.

One other note about this.  If Hendry ends up with $2-4 million left over to be used at the trade deadline that's great, but what happens if the Cubs are out of the playoff race by then?  Well, that money could be carried over to 2011 and the Cubs could also dump a few contract (Podsednick/Byrd/Ankiel/Johnson) as well as guys like Calero, Gorzelanny and Marshall.  Doing so would lower payroll and free up that money to be spent in 2011 to fix whatever went wrong in 2010.  Instead of going into 2011 with say, $6 million to add to payroll perhaps it could be in the range of $12-15 million on top of what other contracts are coming off the books.  Derek Lee is going into the last year of his contract and given his age it's hard to see him getting another deal worth $13 million a year, even if he is as productive in 2010 as he was in 2009.  If the front office starts doing things right from this point on the team could have a descent amount of cash on hand to make the 2011 team competitive.

Keith Law on the Braves and Rafael Soriano

by: pageian

Keith Law makes a good argument (subscription content) for offering type A free agents arbitration.  Here's the takeaway:

"The lesson here for clubs wavering on offering arbitration to a Type A free agent is that having the player accept against your wishes is not the end of the world. If the player is good and his market was hurt by the Type A designation, you should still be able to dump the salary, at the least, if not actually trade him for something of value. Atlanta's decision to offer might not look like the right one because Soriano accepted, but it was the right call, and I'd rather take the risk of having a good player accept than throw away the chance for two high draft picks the way Dodgers did by not offering a deal to Randy Wolf."

He could add the Chicago Cubs to the list for not offering arbitration to Rich Harden and missing out on a draft pick (Harden was a type B free agent so he would have netted the Cubs one pick).  Type B free agents don't cost the signing team a pick like type A's do so that wouldn't have depressed the market for Harden.  The worst case scenario would have been Harden accepting arbitration from the Cubs and then they not be able to trade him and his salary.  So, even in the worst case scenario they'd end up with a very talented pitcher on their staff who would have been earning roughly $7-9 million dollars.  I realize payroll is tight but you have to acquire talent every chance you get.  Letting good players like Harden go without any compensation is simply a waste.  Remember, the Cubs traded some marginally talented players to Oakland halfway through the 2008 season for him, guys like Sean Gallagher and Eric Patterson.  They may never pan out as good big league players but they basically bought the Cubs a little over a years worth of starts from Harden and now the Cubs have passed on a chance to recoup some of that value with a draft pick.

Large market teams like the Cubs shouldn't be in a position where they have to pass up offering arbitration to players like Harden for fear that they'll hamper payroll.  That's the reality though and Jim Hendry doesn't seem to be willing to take a chance, it seems he'd rather forfeit talent and play it "safe" by spending every penny he can on free agents rather than risking paying an extra million more than he want's to on an arbitration case.  Congrats to Frank Wren and the Braves for taking a chance by offering arbitration to Rafael Soriano and getting a useful piece back in Jesse Chavez.