Sad day for the Boilers

by pageian:

Purdue just lost Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season and quite possibly lost their chance of playing in the Final Four in their home state.  Hummel is as important to the Boilermakers as any player is to any other team but Purdue has enough depth to adjust.  Players like Keaton Grant and Chris Kramer need to step up on offense now, which Grant has already done the last three games.  If he can continue to score in double figures consistently then he can replace Hummel's offense.  The problem is going to be defense, rebounding and perhaps more importantly height on the inside.  Besides JuJaun Johnson the only other big player Purdue has that plays regularly was Hummel.  Losing him on the inside creates problems that perhaps don't show up in the box score like points do but are just as important.  It's easy to see the Boilers getting out rebounded by bigger teams now and perhaps have the other teams inside guys go off on them since Johnson can't cover everyone.  Hummel is generously listed as 6'8", he's probably closer to 6'6", but he still played inside well on defense and filled a lot of wholes that Purdue's bench is going to have a hard time covering.

All of which leads to another question, why doesn't Purdue have more big guys?  They have 13 guys listed on the roster as guards, 2 as forwards and 1 as a center.  Really, 13 guards?  Their "backup" forward, Patrick Bade is a 6'8" freshman who's played a total of 186 minutes this season.  So what happens now, start four guards and Johnson?  Start a freshman for the final three games of the season, the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament?  What other options do they have?  I guess it's something I'd like to know, why did Matt Painter construct his roster this way?  Did he purposely sign all those guards or did he lose out recruiting other big men and didn't have any other choice?  One way or the other it's put Purdue in a tough situation.  They can perhaps replace Hummel's offense but how are they going to replace him inside?

I still think Purdue has a good chance of winning the Big Ten outright and perhaps doing well in the Big Ten Tournament, if not winning that as well.  Their chances of a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament are probably gone though since it already seems like everyone in the media is itching to drop them in the rankings and/or move Syracuse in front of them.  They're the #3 ranked team in the country right now but whether they win or lose their next few games they're going to drop in the rankings just for losing Hummel.  How far will they go in the NCAA's without Hummel?  I'm guessing Sweet Sixteen, unless the selection committee somehow awards them a #1 seed (they won't, see what they did to Cincinnati in 2000 when they lost Kenyon Martin).  With a #1 seed I would guess they'd make it to the Elite Eight but no further.

It's too bad really, the trip to the Final Four was only an hour down I65 in Indy.

What's wrong with the Boilermakers?

by: pageian



Purdue men's basketball just lost their third game in a row after opening the season 14-0 and getting as high as #4 in the rankings.  Purdue didn't lose a game in non-conference play, beating everyone they played, every place they played, including two teams ranked in the top ten and undefeated themselves at the time.  The Boilers are only 2-3 in Big Ten play though, their only wins coming at lowly Iowa and against Minnesota at Mackey Arena.  They've lost to Wisconsin on the road, Ohio State at home and now Northwestern on the road.



The Northwestern loss is particularly troubling.  The Wildcats are perennial doormats in the Big Ten and the Boilers usually handle them easily.  The Wildcats are looking good this year but most analyst's still felt they didn't have much of a chance of getting into the NCAA tournament though.  Now?  They just beat a team that's ranked 6th in the nation (though that will certainly change Monday when the new rankings come out) and they're beating teams they're supposed to be as well as some they aren't.  After this win they have to be taken seriously as a tournament team.


The problem for the Boilers appears to be the inside play of star forward JuJuan Johnson.  Johnson put up 25 points and 10 rebounds against then unbeaten and 6th ranked West Virginia on January 1st after only getting 6 points and 4 rebounds at Iowa.  In fact since the start of Big Ten play Johnson has only scored in double figures once with 16 against Minnesota.  Johnson has a total of 40 points in five Big Ten games for an average of only 8 points, he's also averaging only 6.4 rebounds in Big Ten play.  In non-conference play he averaged 15.3 points and 7 rebounds.  He's obviously dropped off since league play started and since he's really the only big man Purdue has, or at least the only inside player they have they've suffered because of it.  The Big Ten is a physical league, perhaps the most physical of all the major leagues in the NCAA's.  Johnson is lanky and athletic but he's undersized in the Big Ten and can be pushed around and gotten into foul trouble by some of the bigger, stronger guys in the league, which is exactly what's been happening lately.


Purdue coach Matt Painter has done an excellent job recruiting since he took over for Gene Keady in 2005, yet one thing he appears to have overlooked is a big, physical inside presence that's particularly necessary in the Big Ten.  Painter has recruited good athletes and good basketball players but his team has 11-guards, 4-forwards and only one center, Johnson who's actually listed as a forward-center.  Johnson is 6'10" but only weights 215 pounds.  The only big guys Purdue has on the bench are freshman Patrick Bade, who's listed as a 6'8", 235 pound forward and Kelsey Barlow who's listed as a forward but at 6'5", 199 pounds he's actually more of a big guard, small forward type player.


Purdue simply doesn't have enough strength inside to dominate in the Big Ten.  They are more of an athletic, finesse team that wins when they shoot the ball well and play defense well.  Since they've gotten into the Big Ten part of their schedule they're getting pushed around more than they're used to and as a result their record has suffered.  Three losses in a row might not knock them out of the rankings but it's going to knock them out of the top ten for sure and probably ends their hope of a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  There's still plenty of time though.  Not only have they played a tough Big Ten schedule so far, with a tough game on the road coming up at Illinois, they've played some good conference schools as well.  They haven't gotten any breaks in the schedule.  When those come, expect the Boilers to regroup and figure out what needs to be done.  Then they'll focus on fixing their problems, or at least focus on working with those problem so that they can win games in the league.  At the end of the conference schedule they'll be there, maybe a game or two back but close to the top, and hopefully they'll be primed and playing their best basketball of the season at conference tournament time (like they did last year when they won the conference tournament) and put themselves in a positions for a good seed in the NCAA tournament.  Given the success Purdue has had the past few years and even earlier this year I think it's fair to expect nothing less.


Purdue is still a good team, they've just run into some teams lately that played great games and may have figured out how to exploit Purdue on the inside.  Painter and the team will work on that and figure out a way to counter it.  Getting it taken care of now will only benefit them when it come time for the tournaments.  And hey, if they don't win the league now that they have 3 losses in league play, I can live with that if it means they got their problems exposed and fixed and are going to be a better team going forward because of it.



Boiler Up!